The January 2026 Numbers: What Actually Happened

At first glance, 237 homes sold in January might look like a slowdown, it's down 6% from January 2025. But context matters. January 2025 was the second-strongest January on record in Saskatoon. Comparing against a peak and still showing up 7% above the 10-year average is not a sign of a softening market. It's a sign of sustained, structural demand.

This is now the 31st consecutive month that Saskatoon has posted above-average sales. Thirty-one months. That's not a hot streak, that's the new normal.

The months-of-supply figure deserves extra attention. In June 2025, Saskatoon was sitting at 1.6 months of supply. We've crept up slightly since then, but we're still operating at less than half the supply a balanced market requires. That dynamic doesn't resolve overnight.

Why the Supply Crisis Isn't Going Away

Understanding the Saskatoon market in 2026 means understanding one thing: this isn't a demand problem. Demand has been consistently strong for over two and a half years. The problem is supply, and the data suggests it's not going to fix itself anytime soon.

New listings in January came in 27% below the historical average. People simply aren't selling, and when they do list, homes are absorbed almost immediately. The Saskatchewan-wide sales-to-new-listings ratio hit 110% in December 2025, meaning more homes are selling than are being listed. That kind of math only works for so long before something gives.

On the construction side, housing starts in Saskatoon were up a remarkable 112.9% in the first half of 2025. That sounds like relief is coming but the vast majority of that activity is multi-family and rental units. Single-family home construction is being held back by elevated building costs, which have risen 16.8% over the last three years. The average new single-family home in Saskatoon now costs $590,600 to build. That price point pushes new supply out of reach for many first-time buyers and constrains what builders can deliver profitably.

"The most pressing challenge remains inventory. Demand is still there. The key question is whether supply can keep pace."
- Chris Guérette, CEO, Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association

The honest answer to that question, at least for 2026, appears to be no.

What This Means for You: Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

Saskatchewan's Economy: Why Saskatoon Is Playing a Different Game

Real estate doesn't exist in isolation, and the economic backdrop in Saskatchewan right now is genuinely exceptional. Saskatoon led every major Canadian city in GDP growth in 2024, and the province is projected to grow at 2.4% in 2026, more than double the national average of 1.1%.

Saskatchewan added 15,200 jobs in 2025 and holds the lowest provincial unemployment rate in Canada at 5.2%, compared to the national average of 6.8%. The province also has the highest employment rate in the country at 63.9%. TD Economics described Saskatchewan's labor market as "a clear outperformer" which is economist-speak for something pretty remarkable is happening here.

The Resource Economy Driving It All

The job and income story in Saskatchewan is anchored by resource extraction, and several major projects are coming online or expanding in 2026.

BHP's Jansen potash mine — one of the largest mining projects in Canadian history is now 66% complete and starts production in 2026. Saskatchewan produces roughly one-third of the world's potash supply. Uranium is another pillar: the province is the world's second-largest producer and hit an all-time high of $2.6 billion in uranium sales in 2024. Add in Foran Mining's copper and zinc operation starting mid-2026, a $51 million Sandvik mining services facility that broke ground in Saskatoon in February, and a new downtown arena approval with full occupancy at River Landing — and you have a city in the middle of a genuine economic expansion, not a short-term spike.

Building permits in 2024 were up 73.8% from 2023. Saskatchewan's population hit an all-time high of 1.27 million people in July 2025. More people, a tightening job market, and major investment inflows, all converging on a city that's already short on housing.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability: The Numbers That Actually Matter

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at the January 28th meeting, following 275 basis points in cumulative cuts from the 2024 peak. The best 5-year fixed mortgage rates available through a broker are currently sitting around 3.69% to 3.74%, with the big banks closer to 4.19%.

Put that in practical terms: if you're buying at Saskatoon's detached benchmark of around $466,000 with 10% down and a 5-year fixed at 3.74%, your monthly payment is approximately $2,150. That's roughly $350 less per month than the same purchase would have cost at 2023's peak rates.

The Affordability Advantage Nobody Talks About Enough

Saskatoon homes cost roughly half of what comparable properties sell for in Toronto, and about 40% of Vancouver pricing. Even against Calgary, where the average sits around $607,000 — Saskatoon is more affordable. And Saskatoon's GDP growth rate is faster than all of them.

You can buy a detached home in one of Canada's fastest-growing economic cities for what a condo costs in Toronto. That's the Saskatoon value proposition in plain terms.

What the Forecasters Are Saying

RE/MAX is projecting 5% price growth in Saskatoon for 2026. TD Economics has called this city the hottest housing market in the country. CREA's national forecast expects Saskatchewan to post larger price gains than British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Nova Scotia.

These aren't casual predictions, they're informed by the same supply and demand fundamentals this article is built on.

Best Neighbourhoods in Saskatoon to Watch in 2026

Risks Worth Acknowledging

A balanced take on any market has to include the risks. Here are the ones worth keeping an eye on in 2026.

These risks are real. But even if all of them materialize simultaneously, the starting point matters. Saskatoon's inventory is at 50% of normal levels. You'd need an enormous influx of supply to swing this market into genuine balance, and none of the current indicators point toward that happening within 2026.

The Bottom Line for 2026

Thirty-one consecutive months of above-average sales. Inventory at half of normal. Benchmark prices up 3.6% year-over-year. An economy growing at more than double the national pace. And forecasts from every major institution pointing to continued appreciation.

Saskatoon's housing market isn't showing signs of a correction. It's showing signs of a city in the middle of a structural economic expansion, with demand persistently outpacing supply. That's a different kind of market than what we saw in Toronto or Vancouver, and it requires a different kind of decision-making framework.

Waiting for a dramatic drop in prices isn't a strategy here. Waiting costs you money every month, in rising purchase prices, in opportunity cost on equity you haven't built yet, and in the rental yield you're leaving on the table.